Tag: risk

What Is An Endangered Species?

Gray wolves, like this pair on Isle Royale, are listed as endangered in the United States.

Credit: Michigan Tech

By John Vucetich, professor, College of Forest Resources and Environmental Science

Lions and leopards are endangered species. Robins and raccoons clearly are not. The distinction seems simple until one ponders a question such as: How many lions would there have to be and how many of their former haunts would they have to inhabit before we’d agree they are no longer endangered?

To put a fine point on it, what is an endangered species? The quick answer: An endangered species is at risk of extinction. Fine, except questions about risk always come in shades and degrees, more risk and less risk.

Extinction risk increases as a species is driven to extinction from portions of its natural range. Most mammal species have been driven to extinction from half or more of their historic range because of human activities. 

The query “What is an endangered species?” is quickly transformed into a far tougher question: How much loss should a species endure before we agree that the species deserves special protections and concerted effort for its betterment? My colleagues and I put a very similar question to nearly 1,000 (representatively sampled) Americans after giving them the information in the previous paragraph. The results, “What is an endangered species?: judgments about acceptable risk,” are published today in Environmental Research Letters.

Three-quarters of those surveyed said a species deserves special protections if it had been driven to extinction from any more than 30% of its historic range. Not everyone was in perfect agreement. Some were more accepting of losses. The survey results indicate that people more accepting of loss were less knowledgeable about the environment and self-identify as advocates for the rights of gun and land owners. Still, three-quarters of people from the group of people who were more accepting of loss thought special protections were warranted if a species had been lost from more than 41% of their former range.

These attitudes of the American public are aligned with the language of the U.S. Endangered Species Act — the law for preventing species endangerment in the U.S. That law defines an endangered species as one that is “in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant portion of its range.”

But there might be a problem

Government decision-makers have tended to agree with the scientists they consult in judging what counts as acceptable risk and loss. These scientists express the trigger point for endangerment in very different terms. They tend to say a species is endangered if its risk of total and complete extinction exceeds 5% over 100 years.

Before human activities began elevating extinction risk, a typical vertebrate species would have experienced an extinction risk of 1% over a 10,000-year period. The extinction risk that decision-makers and their consultant experts have tended to consider acceptable (5% over 100 years) corresponds to an extinction risk many times greater that the extinction risk we currently impose on biodiversity! Experts and decision-makers — using a law designed to mitigate the biodiversity crisis — tend to allow for stunningly high levels of risk. But the law and the general public seem accepting of only lower risk that would greatly mitigate the biodiversity crisis. What’s going on?

One possibility is that experts and decision-makers are more accepting of the risks and losses because they believe greater protection would be impossibly expensive. If so, the American public may be getting it right, not the experts and decision-makers. Why? Because the law allows for two separate judgements. The first judgement is, is the species endangered and therefore deserving of protection? The second judgment is, can the American people afford that protection? Keeping those judgements separate is vital because making a case that more funding and effort is required to solve the biodiversity crisis is not helped by experts and decision-makers when they grossly understate the problem — as they do when they judge endangerment to entail such extraordinarily high levels of risk and loss.

Facts and Values

Another possible explanation for the judgments of experts and decision-makers was uncovered in an earlier paper led by Jeremy Bruskotter of Ohio State University (also a collaborator on this paper). They showed that experts tended to offer judgments about grizzly bear endangerment — based not so much their own independent expert judgement — but on basis of what they think (rightly or wrongly) their peers’ judgement would be.

Regardless of the explanation, a good answer to the question, “What an endangered species?” is an inescapable synthesis of facts and values. Experts on endangered species have a better handle on the facts than the general public. However, there is cause for concern when decision-makers do not reflect the broadly held values of their constituents. An important possible explanation for this discrepancy in values is the influence of special interests on decision-makers and experts charged with caring for biodiversity.  

Getting the answer right is of grave importance. If we do not know well enough what an endangered species is, then we cannot know well enough what it means to conserve nature, because conserving nature is largely — either directly or indirectly — about giving special care to endangered species until they no longer deserve that label.

Research collaborators include Jeremy T. Bruskotter of Ohio State University, Adam Feltz of University of Oklahoma, and Tom Offer-Westort also of University of Oklahoma.

Combating Human Trafficking

Photo by Jordan Whitt

Each year, more than 40 million men, women and children are trafficked worldwide. It manifests in numerous forms and has grown into a multi-billion-dollar illegal enterprise that is difficult to detect, prosecute and examine. Risk analysis is a critical tool for combating human trafficking and is central to informing global policy recommendations and assisting with targeted local and organizational efforts. Several studies will be presented during the Addressing Human Trafficking Risk symposium at the 2019 SRA Annual Meeting at the Crystal Gateway Marriott in Arlington, Virginia.

Many non-governmental organizations (NGOs) work to reduce human trafficking but often fail to understand the context and environment before taking action, resulting in ineffective and sometimes detrimental policies. JD Caddell, U.S. Military Academy, studied how girls were lured and trafficked by reframing the situation as a supply chain and looking at both supply and demand.

Caddell’s study, “Using system dynamics to set strategic priorities to address human trafficking,” revealed that NGO’s actions aimed solely at removing girls from the system yields few long-term benefits and creates more victims in the long run while raid and rescue operations only yields short-term gains.

“Many organizations use raid and rescue models because they provide “results,” in terms of girls saved, which provides validation and a mechanism for future NGO fundraising,” states Caddell. “However, our study showed that focusing on the demand side of the problem is more likely to generate large scale and sustainable progress.”

Because human trafficking is hidden, illegal and dangerous, it is difficult to gather the data needed to develop effective quantitative models and their response to interventions. Kayse Lee Maass, Ph.D., Northeastern University, has been working with survivors, law enforcement personnel and social scientists to better understand the structure and operations of trafficking networks, how they adapt and the dependencies between their cyber and social networks.

Maass’s study, “Modeling operations of human trafficking networks for effective interdiction,” provides non-profits, service providers, policy makers and other anti-trafficking stakeholders with decision support tools to effectively allocate resources to disrupt networks and ensure survivors have access to support services.

Similarly, Julia Coxen, University of Michigan, has approached the problem by decomposing the risks of human trafficking into the risks to public health, to security and to the community. Coxen’s study, “Risk analysis as a critical tool for human trafficking,” helps decision-makers better understand the complexities of human trafficking. The study also highlights the need for more evidence-based and quantitative risk analysis research to combat this global issue that impacts all levels of society.

** Coxen, Caddell, and Maass are available for media interviews at the 2019 SRA Annual Meeting. Please contact Natalie Judd at natalie@bigvoicecomm.com for all interview requests.